PCRAFI AIR Brochure: Risk Assessment Methodology

In this country risk profile, the The Pacific Region’s earthquake and tropical cyclone risk profiles are derived from an estimation of the direct losses to buildings, infrastructure assets and major crops that are caused by all the simulated potential future events. The direct losses include the cost of repairing or replacing the damaged assets, but do not include other losses such as contents losses, business interruption losses and losses to primary industries other than agriculture. The direct losses for tropical cyclones are caused by wind and flooding due to rain and storm surge, while losses for earthquakes are caused by ground shaking and tsunami inundation. After assessing the cost of repairing or rebuilding the damaged assets due to the impact of all the simulated potential future events, it is possible to estimate in a probabilistic sense the severity of losses for future catastrophes. The Pacific Region is prone to many natural hazards that threaten populations and cause significant economic losses due to damage to the built environment and crops. An extensive study has been conducted to analyze the risk from tropical cyclones, earthquakes, and tsunamis. This included the generation of detailed exposure information to locate and characterize over 3.5 million buildings and infrastructure in 15 Pacific Island Countries (PICs). The impact that historical events have had on the people and assets of these countries has been investigated to understand the extent of adverse consequences that possible future events may bring. Ten thousand simulations of potential future annual tropical cyclone and earthquake activity in the Pacific Region have been carried out to estimate risk in terms of monetary loss and casualties. The risk information can help identify existing vulnerable areas and communities located in or adjacent to these areas. It also can assist in supporting more targeted intervention in community-based disaster risk management and climate change adaptation actions. In the occurrence of a natural disaster the database also provides extremely useful baseline data and information for conducting timely and effective post-disaster damage assessments.